Tropical Cyclone Local Statement Issued
From
Horseshoe Beach
Sent
Thu, Oct 8 @ 11:48pm
Description
Tropical Cyclone Local Statement issued October 8 at 11:38PM EDT by NWS Tallahassee FL
HLSTAE
This product covers eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia
**ISAIAS NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT EDGES CLOSER TO THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST**
NEW INFORMATION
---------------
* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- None
* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
Coastal Bay and South Walton
- A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Central Walton and North
Walton
- A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect
for Coastal Franklin, Coastal Gulf, Coastal Jefferson, and
Coastal Wakulla
- A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for Coastal Dixie and
Coastal Taylor
- A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Calhoun, Clay,
Coffee, Dale, Decatur, Early, Gadsden, Geneva, Henry, Holmes,
Houston, Inland Bay, Inland Franklin, Inland Gulf, Inland
Wakulla, Jackson, Leon, Miller, Northern Liberty, Seminole,
Southern Liberty, and Washington
- A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Baker, Calhoun,
Colquitt, Dougherty, Grady, Inland Jefferson, Lee, Mitchell,
Quitman, Randolph, Terrell, Thomas, and Worth
* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 360 miles south-southwest of Panama City or about 360
miles southwest of Apalachicola
- 25.4N 88.4W
- Storm Intensity 105 mph
- Movement Northeast or 40 degrees at 14 mph
SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------
At 11 PM ET, Hurricane Isaias was located over the Central Gulf with
maximum sustained winds of 105 mph and moving NE at 14 mph. There are
overall no significant changes in the forecast reasoning from the
previous advisory. Isaias is forecast to turn northward later today and
accelerate in forward speed towards the central Gulf coast. Additional
strengthening is anticipated through tonight, and is now forecast to
temporarily become a major hurricane before increasing vertical wind
shear causes weakening as Isaias nears the coast. Landfall is
anticipated somewhere along the Florida Panhandle or Southern Alabama
coast later Friday night as a dangerous hurricane. The wind field is
expected to expand considerably and should be lopsided towards the
east, which means impacts are likely well beyond the forecast cone,
particularly east of the hurricane's center.
Conditions could begin to deteriorate across the Florida Panhandle as
early as this morning. Therefore, residents should be prepared.
Given the expected large size of Isaias as it nears northern Gulf
coast, the wind threat should extend well into the eastern portions of
the Tri-state area. An expected fast forward speed will also lead to
the wind threat extending further inland, especially near the core of
the storm. A Storm Surge Warning remains in effect from the all of our
Panhandle and Big Bend coast. Life-threatening inundation values of 5
to 7 feet above normally dry ground are forecast across the coastal
Panhandle to Indian Pass, 4 to 6 feet from Indian Pass to the
Steinhatchee River, and 3 to 5 feet from the Steinhatchee River to
Suwannee River, coincident with the high tide. The greatest surge risk
will be Friday into Saturday.
Soggy conditions across the region from recent rainfall will make much
of the Tri-state area more sensitive to flooding from additional heavy
rainfall from Isaias. Forecast rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches is
expected across much of the area. Localized totals up to 15 inches are
possible, especially within banding across the Florida Panhandle and
Big Bend. If realized, these values are likely to produce isolated to
scattered flash flooding and some river flooding. Localized
considerable flash flooding is also possible where bands of heavy rain
move repeatedly over the same area. Given these factors, a Flood Watch
remains in effect for counties along and west of the I-75 corridor, the
FL Big Bend, and eastern FL Big Bend from Friday afternoon through
Saturday evening. Isaias will also bring a heightened tornado risk
across the Florida Panhandle and Western FL Big Bend on Friday into
Saturday and Southeast AL & Southwest GA late Friday into Saturday.
Several tornadoes are possible from outer and trailing rain bands.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------
* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across the area, especially over the Florida
Panhandle and Big Bend. Potential impacts include:
- Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
multiple places. Small streams, creeks, and ditches may become
dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become
stressed.
- Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous. Many
road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.
Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible
significant impacts across the remainder of the area.
* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible extensive
impacts across coastal Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. Potential
impacts in this area include:
- Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding
accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to buildings,
with several washing away. Damage compounded by floating debris.
Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period.
- Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads
washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and
barriers may become stressed.
- Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss.
- Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many
small craft broken away from moorings, especially in unprotected
anchorages with some lifted onshore and stranded.
Elsewhere across inland counties, little to no impact is anticipated.
* TORNADOES:
Protect against a dangerous tornado event having possible significant
impacts across the area, particularly across the Florida Panhandle,
Florida Big Bend, Southeast Alabama, and parts of Southwest Georgia.
Potential impacts include:
- The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution
of emergency plans during tropical events.
- Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots of
considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.
- Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or
uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about.
Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts across
locations east of the I-75 corridor and the Southeast Florida Big
Bend.
* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible extensive
impacts across the Florida Panhandle and parts of Southern Alabama.
Potential impacts in this area include:
- Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
uninhabitable for weeks.
- Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and access
routes impassable.
- Large areas with power and communications outages.
Also, protect against dangerous wind having possible limited to
significant impacts across the Western & Southeast Florida Big Bend,
and portions of Southwest Georgia
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------
* EVACUATIONS:
Follow the advice of local officials
* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.
If you are relocating to safe shelter, leave as early as possible.
Allow extra time to reach your destination. Many roads and bridges
will be closed once strong winds arrive. Check the latest weather
forecast before departing and drive with caution.
If heading to a community shelter, become familiar with the shelter
rules before arrival, especially if you have special needs or have
pets. Take essential items with you from your Emergency Supplies Kit.
Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury or loss of
life. Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any
orders that are issued. Remember, during the storm 9 1 1 Emergency
Services may not be able to immediately respond if conditions are
unsafe. This should be a big factor in your decision making.
Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles
can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide
poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly
ventilated area.
If you are a visitor, be sure to know the name of the city in which
you are staying and the name of the county in which it resides.
Listen for these locations in local news updates. Pay attention for
instructions from local authorities.
Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and
hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge
zone. Even if you are not in a surge-prone area, you could find
yourself cutoff by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed
evacuation orders issued by the local authorities.
Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood-prone
area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded
roadway. Remember, turn around don't drown!
If a Tornado Warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter
quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not
prone to flooding. If driving, scan the roadside for quick shelter
options.
If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of
strong winds or flooding.
Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.
* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org
NEXT UPDATE
-----------
The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Tallahassee FL around 6 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.
This notification was posted by Horseshoe Beach. Horseshoe Beach is solely responsible for this notification and unless specifically indicated, no other community or individual utilizing Savvy Citizen is sponsoring, responsible for, or endorsing this notification.
